March 25th, 2015
An industry health
check and 3 surprising business drivers
By
Peter Romeo,
Director of Digital Content
Attendees
of the Restaurant Leadership Conference are presented with no fewer than four
detailed reports on the health of the industry and what trends are contributing
to or detracting from it. The consensus was that sales are accelerating, albeit
moderately, because underlying macro factors like employment and general
economic activity are improving. Declining gas prices were hailed as having a
particularly positive effect on restaurant prices.
Bad
weather temporarily chilled the economy in the first quarter, noted GE
Capital’s Todd Jones, but the more persistent problem is income stagnation.
About three of every four jobs lost during the Great Recession were middle or
high-paying positions. Only 56 percent of the jobs that have been created since
then fall in those income brackets, Jones said.
Traffic
remains a challenge. Jones noted that customer counts for full-service
restaurants are finally increasing, but TKn2K’s Victor Fernandez noted that
overall industry traffic is still 11 percent below the pre-2008 level.
The
statistics reeled off by the sales and traffic handicappers were leavened by
the mention of some unexpected trends that could change the numbers. Among the
new currents they noted:
1. DIY restaurant food
In a
validation of restaurants’ addition of butcher shops, food markets and other
sources of raw groceries, the National Restaurant Association’s Hudson Riehle
noted that 48 percent of consumers say they would buy food from a restaurant to
cook at home. The interest in what he called DIY food was particularly high (64
percent) among patrons aged 18 to 34.
2. Summertime blues
The
optimal weather conditions for the industry’s busiest season are
cooler-than-normal temperatures, said Riehle. But the forecast for this summer
calls for higher-than-usual temperatures along the coast.
3. Exceptional spiciness is the new normal
For
the first time since Technomic started collecting data, a majority (54 percent)
of consumers prefer spicy foods. “It will be a really important part of menu
innovation for years to come,” said the research company’s Darren
Tristano.
